Marine Focus 2045
Only by choosing to focus on marine development, we can become a developed country by 2045.
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"The hope for rain from the sky is equivalent to pouring water into a jar." This proverb is appropriate to remind us to focus more on immediately utilizing the advantages in the sea to realize Indonesia Emas 2045.
The Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas in the Final Draft of the National Long-Term Development Plan 2025-2045 projects that in order to become a developed country, Indonesia must be able to increase per capita income from 4,919.7 US dollars/year (approximately IDR 75 million) currently to 30,300 US dollars (approximately IDR 453 million) in 2045.
The number of job opportunities also needs to continue to increase. The BPS report notes that the national unemployment rate is still 7.86 million people. In addition, every year there are around 3 million new productive-age labor forces ready to enter the job market. The problem is that the ratio of job opportunities as a result of investment is actually decreasing.
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In 2013, every Rp 1 trillion of investment that came in was able to absorb 4,594 workers. In 2023, for every Rp 1 trillion, only 1,285 people will be able to find employment.
How can Indonesia reduce the unemployment rate while increasing per capita income up to six times (only) in the next 20 years? It will not be sufficient to rely only on current job opportunities (read: on land). We need to improve the job ecosystem in the sea.
Working at sea poses higher complexity challenges compared to working on land. For fishermen, for example, despite the high risks and demands for their expertise, their wage standards and social security protection are still inadequate.
In Central Java, factory workers' wage standard (on land) is IDR 2.32 million (BPS, 2023), while fishermen's income is only IDR 1 million - IDR 2 million per month. With such minimal and uncertain income, most fishermen's families are not yet equipped with social protection guarantees.
The World Bank and S4YE survey in 18 countries (2023) found other worrying facts. The income of the younger generation who work as fishermen and fish farmers is much lower than their parents: minus 18 percent and minus 15 percent. As a result, only 19.20 percent of young Indonesians work in the fields of fisheries, agriculture and plantations (BPS, 2023). Most of the others work in the service and trade sectors.
The next challenge is to integrate science and technology into the marine development policy-making process. Let's look at the policy polemic regarding lobster seeds in the last 20 years. The policy options are limited to seed exports: open or close. As with the regulation of foreign fishing vessels in Indonesian waters, the debate is still about opening or closing them.
Focus 2045
Second, learning from Norway's success with salmon, Indonesia can set priorities for the blue economy subsector in the period up to 2045. Indonesia 2045 Laboratory together with the IPB Center for Coastal and Ocean Resources Studies and SDGs The Diponegoro University Center (2022) has mapped blue economy priority sectors by considering three enabling factors: resource availability, investment, and innovation and technology.
As a result, until 2024, Indonesia is advised to focus on just two sectors: fisheries and marine tourism.
Furthermore, in the middle phase of 2024-2029, in addition to maintaining the sustainability of the two aforementioned sectors, there must also be efforts to invest in preparing for future sectors that are currently developing, including renewable energy, shipping, ports, logistics and cold chains, as well as seawater desalination and marine-based chemicals. By 2045, or 100 years of Indonesian independence, all national blue economy potentials can be firmly, inclusively, and sustainably activated.
This national endeavor should be complemented by strengthening the national maritime institutions that reflect three main interests: optimization of the blue economy subsector which in the short term can contribute to the national economy. Mobilizing investment to "wake up" the still "dormant" blue economy subsector. And, free from corrupt practices.
Only by choosing to focus on marine development, we can become a developed country by 2045.
M Riza Damanik, General Chair of the Indonesian Maritime Scholars Association